Reserve Bank of India
Reserve Bank of India kept policy rates unchanged while changing the stance to calibrated tightening from neutral in its Fourth Bi-monthly Monetary Policy. Consequently, key policy rates remained unchanged – Repo rate at 6.50%, Reverse Repo at 6.25% and Marginal Standing Facility (MSF) at 6.75%
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Inflation projections for 2018-19
Inflation projections for 2018-19 were revised downside as food inflation has remained benign. Including the impact of HRA, inflation is projected to be at 4% in Q2 FY19 (4.6% prev), 3.9%-4.5% in H2 FY19 (4.8% prev) and 4.8% in Q1 FY20 (5% prev). The GDP projection for FY19 has been maintained at 7.4% –with 7.5% in Q2 FY19 and 7.3-7.4% for H2 FY19. GDP growth for Q1 FY20 is projected at 7.4% (7.5% prev).
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Belying market expectations
Belying market expectations, headline consumer price inflation for Sep-18 stood at 3.77% compared to Aug-18 reading of 3.69%, remaining below the RBI’s medium term inflation target of 4% for second consecutive month. Core inflation also moderated to 5.81% vs. revised estimate of 5.92% last month (5.87% previously).
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September Wholesale
September Wholesale Price Index came in at 5.13% as against 4.53% in the August mainly due to rise in prices of Fuel and power as well as Manufactured Products. At the same time, July WPI print was revised upwards to 5.27% from 5.09% previously.
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Indias September manufacturing
India's September manufacturing PMI came in at 52.2, rising from 51.7 in August due to gains in new orders, output and employment.
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