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Futures

 
 

An Interest Rate Futures contract is "an agreement to buy or sell a debt instrument at a specified future date at a price that is fixed today." The underlying security for Interest Rate Futures is either a Government Security or a T-Bill.

Currently, the futures contracts are available on 91 Day T-Bill and the below mentioned government securities:

  1. 6.84% GS 2022
  2. 7.68% GS 2023
  3. 7.59% GS 2026
  4. 6.97% GS 2026
  5. 6.79% GS 2027
  6. 7.59% GS 2029
  7. 6.79% GS 2029
  8. 7.88% GS 2030
  9. 7.61% GS 2030
  10. 6.68% GS 2031

Futures on G-Secs are traded in lots of Rs 2 Lacs with three serial monthly contracts outstanding. These contracts are traded on NSE and BSE exchanges. In its current form, the futures contracts are cash settled on T+1 day. All the contracts expire on the last Thursday of every month. Settlement of outstanding positions in futures contracts is undertaken on the Daily Settlement Price (DSP) determined by the exchange. DSP is the price at which the daily valuation of the futures contract is carried out. In other words, the daily MTM pay-in/ pay-out is calculated as the price at which a trader holds the futures position minus the DSP as determined by the exchange. The calculation of DSP is based on the ‘Volume Weighted Average Futures Price of last half an hour’. In case of absence of last half an hour of trading in a particular futures contract, then the DSP is calculated based on theoretical formula.

However, on expiry, settlement takes place on the Final Settlement price. It is the price at which a futures contract is valued at on expiry. It is calculated as the ‘Weighted Average Price of the underlying bond during the last two hours of the trading on NDS-OM subject to minimum of 5 trades. If less than 5 trades are executed in the underlying bond during the last two hours of trading, then FIMMDA price shall be used as final settlement price.

IRF trading has increased considerably with volumes ranging between Rs 1,500 – Rs 4,000 Crs on daily basis. STCI Primary Dealer Ltd. is an active player in this market and undertakes transactions on a proprietary basis.

 
 
 

Latest News

In its Fifth Bi-Monthly
In its Fifth Bi-Monthly Monetary Policy for FY19, the MPC-panel maintained ‘status quo’. Consequently, key policy rates remained unchanged - Repo rate at 6.50%, Reverse repo at 6.25% and MSF at 6.75%.
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Inflation projections for
Inflation projections for 2018-19 were revised downwards as food inflation has remained benign. It is projected at 2.7%-3.2%% in H2 FY19 (3.8%-4.5% previously) and 3.8%-4.2% in H1 FY20.
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Growth for FY19
Growth for FY19 is projected at 7.4% with 7.2%-7.3% in H2 FY19 (7.3%-7.4% previously). Growth in H1 FY20 is projected to stand at 7.5%.
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RBI in its February policy
RBI in its February policy cut the repo rate by 25 bps while also changing the stance to ‘neutral’ from ‘calibrated tightening’. Consequently, key policy rates are pegged as follows - Repo rate at 6.25%, Reverse Repo at 6.00% and Marginal Standing Facility (MSF) at 6.50%
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The inflation projections
The inflation projections have been revised downwards to 2.8% in Q4 FY19 (from 2.7-3.2% earlier), 3.2-3.4% in H1 FY20 (from 3.8-4.2% earlier) and 3.9% in Q3 FY20
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GDP growth for FY20
GDP growth for FY20 has been projected at 7.4% - in the range of 7.2-7.4% in H1 (from 7.5% earlier) and 7.5% in Q3.
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Spurring a positive surprise
Spurring a positive surprise, Jan CPI stood significantly lower than market expectations at 2.05% vis-à-vis the revised Dec-18 estimate of 2.11% (2.19% previously). Lack of inflationary pressures in the services components led core CPI to also moderate, clocking in at 5.38%, a sharp fall from 5.68% in Dec-18.
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Industrial production rose
Industrial production rose by 2.4% in Jan-19 as compared to 0.3% in Feb-18. Cumulatively, IIP for FY19 stood at 4.6%, lower than 3.7% in FY18. Significant sequential uptick was observed across sectors; Mining (3.4%), Electricity (2.1%) and Manufacturing (6.8%)
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Wholesale inflation for Jan-19
Wholesale inflation for Jan-19 came in at 2.76%, lower than 3.80% registered in Dec-18. Broad-based fall in commodity prices amid deflationary pressures from food and fuel items led to this downtick in inflation. Consequently, core WPI inched down to 2.91%, as compared to 4.22% in Dec-18.
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