In its Fifth Bi-Monthly
In its Fifth Bi-Monthly Monetary Policy for FY19, the MPC-panel maintained ‘status quo’. Consequently, key policy rates remained unchanged - Repo rate at 6.50%, Reverse repo at 6.25% and MSF at 6.75%.
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Inflation projections for
Inflation projections for 2018-19 were revised downwards as food inflation has remained benign. It is projected at 2.7%-3.2%% in H2 FY19 (3.8%-4.5% previously) and 3.8%-4.2% in H1 FY20.
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Growth for FY19
Growth for FY19 is projected at 7.4% with 7.2%-7.3% in H2 FY19 (7.3%-7.4% previously). Growth in H1 FY20 is projected to stand at 7.5%.
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RBI in its February policy
RBI in its February policy cut the repo rate by 25 bps while also changing the stance to ‘neutral’ from ‘calibrated tightening’. Consequently, key policy rates are pegged as follows - Repo rate at 6.25%, Reverse Repo at 6.00% and Marginal Standing Facility (MSF) at 6.50%
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The inflation projections
The inflation projections have been revised downwards to 2.8% in Q4 FY19 (from 2.7-3.2% earlier), 3.2-3.4% in H1 FY20 (from 3.8-4.2% earlier) and 3.9% in Q3 FY20
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GDP growth for FY20
GDP growth for FY20 has been projected at 7.4% - in the range of 7.2-7.4% in H1 (from 7.5% earlier) and 7.5% in Q3.
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Spurring a positive surprise
Spurring a positive surprise, Jan CPI stood significantly lower than market expectations at 2.05% vis-à-vis the revised Dec-18 estimate of 2.11% (2.19% previously). Lack of inflationary pressures in the services components led core CPI to also moderate, clocking in at 5.38%, a sharp fall from 5.68% in Dec-18.
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Industrial production rose
Industrial production rose by 2.4% in Jan-19 as compared to 0.3% in Feb-18. Cumulatively, IIP for FY19 stood at 4.6%, lower than 3.7% in FY18. Significant sequential uptick was observed across sectors; Mining (3.4%), Electricity (2.1%) and Manufacturing (6.8%)
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Wholesale inflation for Jan-19
Wholesale inflation for Jan-19 came in at 2.76%, lower than 3.80% registered in Dec-18. Broad-based fall in commodity prices amid deflationary pressures from food and fuel items led to this downtick in inflation. Consequently, core WPI inched down to 2.91%, as compared to 4.22% in Dec-18.
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