STCI Primary Dealer Ltd.

Research And Publication

Skip Navigation Links.

Macro Economic Update

 
  • Month of March 2019
  • Month of February 2019

     
  • Month of January 2019
  • Month of December 2018
  • Month of November 2018

     
  • Month of October 2018
  • Month of September 2018
  • Month of August 2018

     
  • Month of July 2018
  • Month of June 2018
  • Month of May 2018

     
  • Month of April 2018
  • Month of March 2018
  • Month of February 2018

     
  • Month of January 2018
  • Month of December 2017
  • Month of November 2017

     
  • Month of October 2017
  • Month of September 2017
  • Month of August 2017

     
  • Month of July 2017
  • Month of June 2017
  • Month of April 2017

     
  • Month of March 2017
  • Month of November 2016
  • Month of July 2016

     
  • Month of April 2016
  • Month of May 2016
  • Month of June 2016

     
  • Month of March 2016
  • Month of February 2016
  • Month of January 2016

     
  • Month of December 2015
  • Month of November 2015
  • Month of October 2015

     
  • Month of September 2015
  • Month of August 2015
  • Month of July 2015

     
  • Month of June 2015
  • Month of May 2015
  • Month of April 2015

     
  • Month of March 2015
  • Month of February 2015
  • Month of January 2015

     
  • Month of December 2014
  • Month of November 2014
  • Month of October 2014

     
  • Month of September 2014
  • Month of August 2014
  • Month of July 2014

     
  • Month of June 2014
  • Month of May 2014
  • Month of April 2014

     

Latest News

In its Fifth Bi-Monthly
In its Fifth Bi-Monthly Monetary Policy for FY19, the MPC-panel maintained ‘status quo’. Consequently, key policy rates remained unchanged - Repo rate at 6.50%, Reverse repo at 6.25% and MSF at 6.75%.
--------------------------------------------------
Inflation projections for
Inflation projections for 2018-19 were revised downwards as food inflation has remained benign. It is projected at 2.7%-3.2%% in H2 FY19 (3.8%-4.5% previously) and 3.8%-4.2% in H1 FY20.
--------------------------------------------------
Growth for FY19
Growth for FY19 is projected at 7.4% with 7.2%-7.3% in H2 FY19 (7.3%-7.4% previously). Growth in H1 FY20 is projected to stand at 7.5%.
--------------------------------------------------
RBI in its February policy
RBI in its February policy cut the repo rate by 25 bps while also changing the stance to ‘neutral’ from ‘calibrated tightening’. Consequently, key policy rates are pegged as follows - Repo rate at 6.25%, Reverse Repo at 6.00% and Marginal Standing Facility (MSF) at 6.50%
--------------------------------------------------
The inflation projections
The inflation projections have been revised downwards to 2.8% in Q4 FY19 (from 2.7-3.2% earlier), 3.2-3.4% in H1 FY20 (from 3.8-4.2% earlier) and 3.9% in Q3 FY20
--------------------------------------------------
GDP growth for FY20
GDP growth for FY20 has been projected at 7.4% - in the range of 7.2-7.4% in H1 (from 7.5% earlier) and 7.5% in Q3.
--------------------------------------------------
Spurring a positive surprise
Spurring a positive surprise, Jan CPI stood significantly lower than market expectations at 2.05% vis-à-vis the revised Dec-18 estimate of 2.11% (2.19% previously). Lack of inflationary pressures in the services components led core CPI to also moderate, clocking in at 5.38%, a sharp fall from 5.68% in Dec-18.
--------------------------------------------------
Industrial production rose
Industrial production rose by 2.4% in Jan-19 as compared to 0.3% in Feb-18. Cumulatively, IIP for FY19 stood at 4.6%, lower than 3.7% in FY18. Significant sequential uptick was observed across sectors; Mining (3.4%), Electricity (2.1%) and Manufacturing (6.8%)
--------------------------------------------------
Wholesale inflation for Jan-19
Wholesale inflation for Jan-19 came in at 2.76%, lower than 3.80% registered in Dec-18. Broad-based fall in commodity prices amid deflationary pressures from food and fuel items led to this downtick in inflation. Consequently, core WPI inched down to 2.91%, as compared to 4.22% in Dec-18.
--------------------------------------------------